The fact that August inflation data in the US came in slightly above expectations quickly strengthened expectations of a Fed interest rate hike at its September meeting.

According to estimates, almost all Fed observers who previously did not expect a rate hike in September have changed their predictions following the latest inflation data. Of the 20 institutions on the list, 16 predict that the Fed’s next move will be a rate hike in September, while only a few maintain a scenario of rates remaining unchanged or a rate cut in 2027.

Bank of America expects the Fed to raise interest rates in September and implement a total of 75 basis points of increases throughout 2026. Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, MPA Macro, MUFG, Nomura, Piper Sandler, Societe Generale, TD Securities, UBS, and Wells Fargo, on the other hand, forecast the first increase in September and a total tightening of 50 basis points throughout the year.

Deutsche Bank and RBC are also among the institutions expecting a rate hike in September, with both expecting a total rate increase of 75 basis points by 2026. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, on the other hand, believe the Fed will raise rates in September but expect the total increase for the year to be limited to 25 basis points.

Here are the institutions’ current Fed forecasts:

  • Bank of America: Interest rate hike in September; total 75 basis point increase by 2026.
  • Barclays: Rate hike in September; total increase of 50 basis points.
  • BNP Paribas: Interest rate hike in September; a total increase of 50 basis points.
  • Citigroup: Interest rate hike in September; a total increase of 50 basis points.
  • Deutsche Bank: Interest rate hike in September; a total increase of 75 basis points.
  • Goldman Sachs: Interest rate hike in September; a total increase of 25 basis points.
  • HSBC: Expects interest rates to remain stable for an indefinite period; forecasts no change for 2026.
  • Jefferies: He expects the first move to be a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December.
  • JPMorgan: Interest rate hike in September; a total increase of 25 basis points.
  • Morgan Stanley: Expects the first interest rate cut in 2027; foresees no change in 2026.
  • MPA Macro: Interest rate hike in September; a total increase of 50 basis points.
  • MUFG: Rate hike in September; a total increase of 50 basis points.
  • Nomura: Interest rate hike in September; a total increase of 50 basis points.
  • Oxford Economics: Expects the first interest rate cut in 2027; forecasts no changes in 2026.
  • Piper Sandler: Rate hike in September; a total increase of 50 basis points.
  • RBC: Rate hike in September; a total increase of 75 basis points.
  • Societe Generale: Interest rate increase in September; a total increase of 50 basis points.
  • TD Securities: Interest rate hike in September; a total increase of 50 basis points.
  • UBS: Interest rate hike in September; a total increase of 50 basis points.
  • Wells Fargo: Rate hike in September; total increase of 50 basis points.

*This is not investment advice.