Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the B.TOP mining pool, suggested that the cryptocurrency market could experience a decline followed by a rise after the Fed’s interest rate decision. According to Zhuoer, Bitcoin ($BTC) could test below $75,000 before recovering to the $83,000-$84,000 region.
Jiang Zhuoer stated that the Fed will announce its interest rate decision today at 9:00 PM, and that according to 30-day federal funds futures, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is approximately 92%. Zhuoer said he expects the Fed to raise its policy rate target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%, and that this possibility is largely priced in by the market.
Zhuoer stated that the dot plot interest rate forecasts to be published after the interest rate decision will also be critical for the markets, adding that the central trend, especially after the median interest rate forecast and extreme forecasts are removed, should be monitored. Zhuoer predicted that the dot plot could indicate a total of two interest rate increases for 2026, thus suggesting that another interest rate hike could be on the agenda later in the year following the September decision.
Zhuoer argued that this scenario could initially create selling pressure in the markets, but the real variable would be Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech, which would begin half an hour after the interest rate decision. Predicting that Warsh might deliver more dovish messages, Zhuoer assessed that the most likely market movement would be “first a decline, then a rise.”
According to Zhuoer’s prediction, Bitcoin could fall below $75,000 following the interest rate decision and dot plot announcements. However, with Warsh’s speech, $BTC could recover and test the $83,000-$84,000 region. Zhuoer also suggested that a more significant correction could be seen in the market after this rise.
*This is not investment advice.